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Prediction for CME (2025-11-07T12:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-07T12:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42527/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption northeast of Active Region 14274 (N35E30) starting around 2025-11-07T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. An EUV wave is observed northeast of the eruption site as seen in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, with a wide opening of field lines observed over the northeast limb in GOES SUVI 195/284 imagery. Post eruptive arcades begin to form around 2025-11-07T14:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171/195 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42530/1
Model Inputs:
2025-11-07T12:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-34.0, Lat.=39.0, Speed=261.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2025-11-08T03:42Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-12T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-11-09T17:40Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251108_034200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 98.70 hour(s)
Difference: -17.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-07T19:29Z

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